Few questions might be pricking minds of small investors and traders:

-          What would be direction of Indian stock market ?

-          Would Indian stock market again see previous lows ?

-          What lows can Indian stock market see ?

-          When market would go up ?

After most popular analysis about Indian stock market which was published before market saw lows here, EquityPandit.com brought other analysis for its readers to help them to understand the market trends.

Today (Wednesday, February 18, 2009) Sensex closed at 9015 which is just 7% lower than its previous October lows.

Data that can affect Indian Stock Market movements at this moment is:

1. RBI rate decision
2. Global Financial market.

As far as government policy is concerned, they cannot do much due to election guidelines. And everyone has expected that RBI will cut CRR by 100bps so that factor also would not be able to surprise the Indian Stock Market much. So the only factor that can direct Indian stock market at this point of time is Global Financial Markets. Let’s take a look of major Global market situation with respect of October situation.

From the above data it is clearly visible that we are much close to October 2008 lows and our market doesn’t show strength like Shanghai, Korea or Hang Seng so we are on danger side specially when general election is approaching.

Now let’s have a look at some upcoming data that can affect US Market and so as the Global Financial Markets.

February 18, 2009:

1. MBA Purchase Applications
2. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
3. Import and Export Prices
4. EIA Petroleum Status Report
5. FOMC Minutes

February 19, 2009:

1. Jobless Claims

Market direction:

These events are predicted to show bad results which may worse the Global Financial Market. If these reports would not be declared as worse as analyst expects and if Obama administration declare some new economic plan than market will eventually go back to their December 2008 high or may be higher than that.

Indian stock market is very nearer to October lows and next three to four days will show market direction. Technically at this point market is assumed to make bottom at around 7000-7500 level if it breaches October lows.