budget

Advice for – Friday, February 26, 2010

Yesterday: As expected market ended flat and huge volatility was there due to F&O Expiry.

 

Today: Indian Stock Market is expected to open flat to positive. 4800 as emerged as a strong support for Nifty. Since today is Budget 2010 day. Huge volatility is expected. It is suggested to stay away from market today.

 

BSE Sensex: (16254): The support for the Sensex is 16000 and the resistance to the up move is at 16575.

 

NSE Nifty: (4860) the support for the Nifty is at 4800 and the resistance to the up move is at 4920-4995.

 

Data to watch: Budget 2010.

Union Budget: Sector-wise Budget Highlights

Sector-wise budget highlights of union budget 2009-10 are given below:

Highlights

Taxes

· Surcharge of 10% on personal income tax removed

· No change in Corporate taxes

· Increase exemption on personal income tax by Rs 15,000 to Rs 2,40,000 for senior citizens

· Increase exemption on personal income tax by Rs 10,000 to Rs 1,90,000 for women

· Increase in exemption on personal income tax by Rs 10,000 to Rs 1,60,000 for all others

· Surcharge of 10% on personal income tax removed

· Propose to phase out surcharge on Direct Taxes

· To remove Fringe Benefit Tax

· To remove Fringe Benefit Tax

· States agree on basic structure of Goods and Services Tax

· To raise Minimum Alternate Tax(MAT) TO 15 % of book profit

· MAT hiked from 10% to 15%

· Commodity Transaction Tax scrapped

· Carry Forward Tax credit on MAT to 10 year

· To exempt Pension trust from Securities Transaction Tax

· To create Alternate Tax disputes resolution mechanism for foreign companies

· Software Technology Parks of India (STPI) extended by a year

· GST to be a dual regime with Central and state terms

· No Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on sale/purchase of shares by NPT

Reforms, Tax reforms

· To work on Saral 2 form to make income tax procedure simple

· Tax reform system to be completed in 4 years

· Balanced approach to financial de-regulation in justified

· Review and aims of the budget

· It a mandate we accept with humility and will do all we can for the welfare of the nation

· Strong mandate for growth

· Sensitive to the challenges of a young India

· The govt has to sustain a growth of 9% create 12 mn jobs per year

· Reduce poverty levels by half by 2014 infrastructure investment to more than 9% by 2014

· Focus to sustaining momentum in exports

· Strengthen primary healthcare delivery

· Plan to strengthen primary health care

· Broaden inclusive growth agenda

· Our target of agricultural growth at 4%

· Signs of revival of domestic industry

· Fiscal deficit has widened from 2.7 % to 6.2% of GDP

· Institutional reforms to bring the fiscal deficit under control

Challenges

· To get the GDP growth to 9% at the earliest

· To deepen the process of inclusive development

· To reenergise govt, govt must provide service with accountability

· Growth driver in the last 5 yrs has been private investment

· Structure of Indian economy has changes in last 10 yrs

· Now services constitutes more than 50% of GDP

· Increase investment in infrastructure to 9% by 2014

· To focus on infrastructure development

· Growth co-operative effort of Centre and States

· Job growth rate hit by dip in GDP

· Integration of Indian economy with the world has opened up new opportunities and new challenges

· Aim to return to FRBM target at the earliest

For revival

· Govt provided three stimulus package

· RBI took monetary measures to meet the needs of productive sector

· This led to fiscal deficit to rise to 6.2% in 08-09

· We achieved a growth of 6.7% of GDP last fiscal

· Signal of recovery visible in the last few months

· Uncertainty about revival of global economy remains

Infrastructure

· We had set up IFFCL to provide financial assistance to infra companies

· IIFCL will be given greater flexibility

· IIFCL will refinance 60% of bank loans in critical sectors

· IIFCL will evolve a take-out financing schemes for incremental funding in infra

· Fiscal stimulus at 3.5% of GDP helped economy revive

· Sensitive to the needs of young India

· Endeavour to make Budget participatory and ensure continuity

· Significant increase in capital inflows needs

· PPP to be encouraged especially in infrastructure

· Need to improve and strengthen regulatory framework

· To speed up Golden Quadrilateral Project

· Total investment of 100000 CFR in infrastructure

· Need to remove bottlenecks for speedy implementation of infra projects

· Highways allocated 23% more than 08-09

· Rs 15800cr for Railways

· JNURM allocation increased by 80% to Rs 12887 cr

· Basic amenities for urban poor to get more than 3000 cr to make country slum free in 5 yrs

· Provision for housing urban poor at Rs 3973 cr

· Allocation to NHAI increased to 23& Y-O-Y

· Fiscal deficit has widened to 6.7% of GDP

· Target agriculture credit inflows ay Rs 3.25 lakh cr

· · Focus of NCC, Gammon for highway development

· JNNURM to get more than Rs 12000 cr up 87%

· Basic amenities for urban poor to get more than 3000 cr to make country slum free in 5 yrs.

· Provision for housing urban poor at Rs 3973 cr

· Allocation to NHAI increased to 23& Y-O-Y

· Fiscal deficit has widened to 6.7% of GDP

· Target agri credit inflows ay Rs 3.25 lakh cr

· Focus of NCC, Gammon for highway development

· Rural electrification allocation up 27%

Agriculture

· Interest subvention scheme for agriculture loans to continue

· 60% population depended on agri

· Sustained increased in plan allocation

· Target credit flow Rs 325000 cr

· Loans upto 3 lakh at 7% per annum

· Those who pay their loans in time will get loans at 6%

· Task force set up to look into farmer suicides in Maharashtra

· Rajiv Gandhi Krishi Vikas Yojana allocation up by 30%

· Fertilizer subsidy to go to farmers directly

· To move towards Nutrient based subsidy regime

· Additional allocation of Rs 1,000 crore for accelerated irrigation project

· Central assistance for storm-water drainage project increased to Rs 500 crore from Rs 200 crore in the interim Budget

Exports

· Market development assistance schemes allocation up by 180% to 124 cr

· Interest subvention extended to march 2010 for employment extensive export sector

· Special fund for small industries development bank of Rs 400 cr

· Focus to sustain momentum in exports

· 2% Interest subvention for exporters

· Extension of interest subvention scheme extended upto March 2010 to cover sectors like handicrafts and handlooms

· Allocation for market development assistance scheme enhanced by 148 per cent

· To set up handloom mega clusters in Rajasthan, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu

· Export Credit Guarantee scheme extended till March 2010

Oil and gas

· Domestic oil prices should be in sync with global crude

· National gas grid to be set up

· Outlay for Assam Gas Project increased

· Effective interest rate is 8% for farmers with foreclosures

· Expert group to be set up petro product pricing

· Domestic oil prices should be in syncy with global crude

· To develop National Gas Grid

PSUs, banks and Insurance

· To hike promoter shareholding in PSUs

· Encourage people participation in disinvestment

· Banks and insurance will remain in public sector and will get all support

· Banking network to be expanded

· One banking centre in every block planned

· 160% hike in ADPRP

· Capital in fusion in PSU banks to keep them competitive

Inclusive development

· Creating entitlements backed by legal authority to provide basic facility to the aam aadmi

· NREGA gave employment to 4.4 cr household

· Reserve wage of RS 100 per day as an entitlement under NREGA

· Rs 39100 cr for 09-10 for NREGA an increase of 140%

· NREGA allocation increase at 144%

· New scheme PMAGY for integrated development of under developed villages

Pilot project this year

· Poverty eradication goal by 2014-15

· Interest subsidy to poor families for loans upto Rs 1 lakhs

Pension

· substantially improve pension for army men

· Pension benefit extended to war wounded being liberalized

· One Rank One Pension committee recommendations accepted

National Food Security

· BPL entitled by law for Rs 25 kg of rice/wheat at Rs 3 kilo

· Bharat Nirman allocation up 45%

· PM Gram Sadak Yojana allocation up to Rs 12000 cr

· Indira Gandhi Awas Yojana allocation up by 63%

Women and child development

· Focus on women self help groups

· 22 lakhs such groups of women active today, aim to link such self help groups to banks

· Corpus for such schemes to be raised to Rs 500 cr in this fiscal

· Aim to reduce female literacy by half in 3 years

· New scheme to give interest subsidy to poor students pursue any recognised course

Climate change

· Rs 562 cr for National River and lakes conservation

To build accountable institutions:

· RTI act an important step in ushering in accountability

· Unique ID project is major step in this regard: it also marks a beginning of the private involvement in projects of national importance

Police and security

· Rs 430 cr for police modernisation

· 1 lakh housing units for central paramilitary forces

· Borders: 2284 cr for strengthening of borders

Education

· Rs 50 crore for Chandigarh University

· Interest subsidy on loans for higher education

· Rs 2130 crore to set upto more IITs and IIMs

· Spending on higher education raised to Rs 2010 crore

Minorities

· Allocation hiked from Rs 1000 cr to 1700 cr in 09-10

· Scholarships for minorities

· AMU to get Rs 25 cr for each of its new campuses

· Rs 1740 crore outlay for minorities

Budget estimates

· Rs 1020838 cr total budget allocation for 09-10

· Out this more than Rs 6000 cr is planned expenditure while the rest is non-plan

· Increase in non-plan expenditure was due to pay commission and food subsidy

· Interest payment consists of 36% of non-plan expenditure

· Defence outlay up from Rs 105600 cr in 08-09 to 104703 cr in 09-10

· Total tax receipts expected at Rs 641079 cr

· Revenue deficit is estimated at 4.8% and 4.6 as per provisional account for 09-10

· Revenue deficit as percentage of GDP is pegged at 6.8%

· To spend Rs 10.20 lakh crore as total expenditure in 2009-10, crossing the Rs 10 lakh mark for the first time in history

· Increase in plan expenditure 34 %, non-plan at 37 %

· Revenue deficit projected at 4.8% in FY 10

· Fiscal deficit projected at 6.8 % in FY 10

Others

· DEPB scheme for print media extended

· Stimulus package for print media extended to Dec 31

· Hike in allocation for management of Mumbai Floods

· New project for modernisation of employment exchange

· A national web portal for the same

· New programme for rehabilitation of those effected by cylone Alia

 

Advice for – Monday, July 06, 2009

Last trading session: As we said earlier that market looks up till union budget and the market closed positive on Friday.

 

Today: Union Budget is going to be declared today and we would suggest staying away from the market if you are not seeking any expert advice as market would be quite volatile today and can go in any direction, anytime. Positive budget will bring another bull run in the markets.

 

Note: Stocks to trade for intraday, short-term delivery, long term delivery, short selling and Futures and when to exit those stocks would be sent to paid subscribers live during the market hours through SMS.

 

BSE Sensex: (14913) The support for the Sensex is 14650 and the resistance to the up move is at 15200-15400.

 

NSE Nifty: (4424) The support for the Nifty is at 4340-4250 and the resistance to the up move is at 4600.

 

Railway Budget: Meets Public Expectation

Railway minister Mamata Banerjee today announced rail budget which almost meets public expectation which include cheap tickets for the poor and no increase in freight or passenger fares, as well as steps to boost the sprawling system’s efficiency and finances. 

Friday’s railway budget speech underscored the Congress-led government’s focus on “comprehensive growth” after it was reelected by a wider-than-expected margin in May. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government will present its budget on Monday. “The old mindset of economic viability should be substituted by social viability,” Railways Minister Mamata Banerjee said in an address to parliament.

Over the five years through March 2009, Railways generated a cash surplus of about $18.8 billion.  

Railway Budget 2009-10: Key Highlights:

  • No change in passenger fare and freight tariff
  • Plan outlay of Rs 40,745 cr. Proposed for 2009-10
  • Special trains for perishable farm produce, facilities for transportation of rural craft
  • Works for 7 new lines,  gauge conversion of 17 lines and doubling of 13 lines to be taken up
  • Faster parcel services proposed on three routs
  • Tatkal fares reduced by Rs 50 to Rs 100
  • Railway tickets to be made available through post offices and ‘mushkil aasaan’  mobile vans
  • Concession for press persons increased to 50%
  • Monthly ticket of Rs 25 for unorganized sector/poor under ‘izzat’ scheme
  • “Only ladies’ emu trains at delhi, kolkata and Chennai
  • ‘Yuva trains’ from rural hinterland to metros at concessional fare
  • 12 new point-to-point ‘turanto’ trains
  • 57 new trains, extension of 27 trains and increase in frequency of 13 trains and air-conditioned double-decker trains proposed
  • 50 stations to be upgraded to world class stations
  • Long distance trains to have on-board doctors and infotainment services
  • Handicapped and aged persons to have more amenities
  • Special trains to ferry perishable agro products and rural handicrafts
  • Special fund for the development of north east railway
  • Quazigund-anantnag line to be completed by next month
  • Plans to acquire 18,000 wagons in FY10
  • Railways to come out with while paper on financial status and vision-2020 document

 

Effect of Budget on Railway Stocks:

 

BEML

-4.88%

TEXMACO

-5%

KALINDEE RAIL

-5%

KERNEX MICRO

-4.2%

TITAGARH WAGONS

-5%

 

 

 

Budget Special: Economy Survey suggests more reforms

Ahead of the Budget 2009-10, today finance minister presented Economy Survey in the parliament. The economic survey today suggested tax cuts and increase in government expenditure as part of another stimulus package to help the economy overcome the global shock.

 

“The uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic developments world over in 2009-10 and the need for minimizing the second round impact of the global shock calls for a continued fiscal policy stimuli,” said the Economic Survey for 2008-09 tabled in Parliament today. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today said the monsoon would be normal and with luck the country could surpass the GDP growth target of about 7 per cent.

 

The survey said the next round of stimulus could include both tax cuts and increase in government expenditure.

 

Here EquityPandit.com found some key Highlights of the Survey:

  

Foreign Direct Investment reforms:

 

- Allow 100% FDI in health, weather insurance

- Raise FDI in insurance to 49% 

- Allow FDI in multi-brand retail 

- Raise the FDI limit for defence production companies to 40%

 

Disinvestment Process:

 

- Set disinvestment target at Rs 25,000 crore per year

- Start by selling 5-10% of profitable non-navratnas

- List unlisted public sector undertakings

- Auction loss making public service undertakings

- Offload at least 10% equity in PSUs

 

Tax reforms:

 

- Rationalise Dividend Distribution Tax 

- Remove Commodity Transaction Tax, Securities Transaction Tax, and Fringe Benefit Tax 

- Phase out tax surcharge, cess, and transaction tax 

- Introduce new income tax code


On fertilisers:

 

- Decontrol sugar and fertiliser industry

- Cut oil, fertiliser, food subsidy leakages
- Convert producer subsidies into direct consumer subsidies

 

On telecom:

 

- Auction spectrum and make it freely tradable
- Separate telecom licenses from spectrum allocation

 

Pharma booster:

 

- Remove price control on all drugs

 

On fuel:

 

- Limit LPG subsidies to 6-8 cylinders per year

- Oil subsidy only to non-electrified, non-LPG homes

 

Others:

 

- Link small saving rates to gilt and bank deposits
- Review customs duty exemptions
- Eliminate inverted duty structure