This week, many events and disclosures would take place which would affect Indian Stock Market deeply. One of them (IIP Data) had been disclosed today already and affected Indian Stock Market sharply , exactly to EquityPandit’s predicted support levels of 4750 for Nifty and 15850 for Sensex like a dot.

Other events and disclosure which would take place this week and would affect Indian Stock Market are as follows:

December 14, 2011 - Inflation Data 
December 15, 2011 - Advance Tax 
December 16, 2011 - RBI Policy

In the mean time we are expecting that Moody’s may downgrade India’s Rating, which will again give a downfall to Indian Market.

In this type of Market, Investors are suggested to stay with cash in hand and traders are suggested not to think of longs as market may even breach the lows of 4650 for Nifty if event and disclosures are lower than expectations.

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Exactly as predicted by EquityPandit that Nifty is going to touch 4800-4775 levels and in worst condition would breach these levels for further downtrend and exactly same happened. Market touched the levels of 4800 for Nifty, where there was panic selling seen and market finally went down sharply to 4748 levels for Nifty.

What would be Indian Stock Market direction for the next week ?

The short term trend for Nifty is bearish with immediate support at 4675 levels for Nifty. The immediate resistance for Nifty would be 4900. 4675 is the low for year 2010 for Nifty, which would be our next support levels. If anyhow, Nifty breaches those support levels, then it can even test 4600-4525 levels for Nifty.

On the positive side, the resistance for Nifty would be 4900-4950. If any good news comes, then we see market moving up with same pace to these levels as it went down.

Factors to watch:

FII and DII Activity:

In the month of August 2011 (Till Date), FII has seen selling worth Rs.12165 crores and DII have seen net buying worth Rs.8112 crores. So this would be an important data to watch on daily basis for Next week.

US Activity:

US Federal Reserve chairman is going to give speech at Central Bank conference on Friday, in which he is expected to outline path of economic recovery. It would affect further direction of all Stock Market globally.

Other US Data:

Other US data to be disclosed next week would be: US new home sales, US real personal Consumption expenditure, GDP US personal income, US consumer confidence index. US GDP, US construction spending.

Indian Data:

Inflation and India GDP number (Q1) are going to get disclosed next week, which would affect Indian stock market direction.

Inflation: India’s Inflation slipped slightly to 0.7% for the week-ended September 26 as against 0.83% (WoW). The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for all commodities too fell 0.1% to 243 (WoW).

Primary articles were up 0.1%

Manufacturing products down 0.2% (WoW)

Fuel group was down 0.1% (WoW)

Inflation: India’s inflation for the week ended August 8 rose slightly to -1.53 percent against -1.74 percent in the previous week.

Inflation in the corresponding week previous year was 12.82 percent.

Prices of food articles continued to rise over the previous week. Bajra and urad prices rose by two per cent each, and condiments and spices, arhar, and fruit and vegetables became more expensive by one per cent.

However, the prices of jowar came down by four per cent, barley by two per cent, and moong by one per cent.

India’s inflation declined to -1.61 %. Inflation turned negative 1.61 for the first time in 30 years but the prices of food items like fruit and vegetables, cereals and oil were still higher than last year.

With the wholesale price index shrinking to 232.7 points for the week ended June 6 from 236.5 in the same week a year ago, India possibly is the only major economy moving into a deflationary zone though the European region is near zero level due to recessionary pressures.

The stock markets immediately welcomed the development and jumped by about 200 points from the morning lows as market analysts expect this to help further ease the monetary policy restrictions and pave the way for cut in banks’ lending rates.

Releasing the wholesale price data, the government said ‘the annual rate of inflation, calculated on a point to point to basis stood at minus 1.61 per cent for the week ended June 6 as compared to 0.13 per cent for the previous week and 11.66 per cent during the corresponding week of previous year’.

However, food articles were costlier by 8.7 per cent from the comparable week last year as pulses moved up 17 per cent, cereals 13.5 per cent, and fruit and vegetables 10 per cent.

The dip was on account of a fall in fuel prices as international crude oil is now ruling around $70 a barrel against over $140 a barrel during the year-ago period.

As a result, the fuel index slipped by 13 per cent compared to the corresponding week a year ago.

However, furnace oil and naphtha turned expensive by 7 per cent each and diesel oil was dearer by 4 per cent.

Inflation fell to sub-zero level despite rising food prices, which analysts feel is not good for the economy.

It is not very positive for the economy, particularly the manufacturing sector . . . inflation dipped to below zero level in 1975, the emergency days,” said ICRIER consultant Mathew Joseph.

He further said that as the RBI cannot do much about falling inflation, ‘the government in the Budget should push reforms to restore the confidence of industries and initiate steps to generate overall demand”.

India’s Inflation declined to 0.13 percent for the week ended May 30, lower than previous week’s annual rise of 0.48 per cent, government data showed on Thursday.

The annual inflation rate was 9.32 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index, which is published monthly, because it covers a higher number of products and is released weekly.

India’s Inflation rose 0.48% in the 12 months to May 23, lower than previous week’s annual rise of 0.61 percent, government data showed on Thursday.

The annual inflation rate was 8.90 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

The wholesale price index rose to 232.3 points in the week ended May 23 from 232.2 a week earlier.

India’s Inflation rose 0.61 percent for the week ended on May 16, matching the previous week’s annual rise, government data showed on Thursday.

The annual inflation rate was 8.66 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index, which is published monthly, because it covers a higher number of products and is released weekly.

India’s Inflation rose to 0.70% for the week ended April 25, 2009, above the previous week’s Inflation of 0.57%, government data showed on Friday.

The annual inflation rate was 8.27 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index, which is published monthly, because it covers a higher number of products and is released weekly.

INFLATION: India’s Inflation rose 0.26 percent on the week ended April 11 as compared to the previous week’s Inflation at 0.18 percent, government data showed on Thursday.

The annual inflation rate was 7.95 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for all commodities is up 0.3% at 228.8 WoW.

In internals, primary articles was up 0.5%, while manufacturing products was up 0.2% WoW. The fuel group remained unchanged.

India’s Inflation declines to 0.18 percent for the week ended on April 4 as compared to previous week’s Inflation of 0.26 per cent, government data showed on Thursday.

The annual inflation rate was 7.71 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for all commodities was up 0.4%, At 228.2 on week-on-week (WoW) basis. Primary articles were up 1.1% (WoW), whereas, manufacturing products climbed 0.1% (WoW). Fuel Group was up 0.5% (WoW) and Jet Fuel Price was up 12% (WoW). Naphtha rose 8%.

India:  Indian stock market has led the pack of positive rally last week with BSE-Sensex ending higher by 4.4% over the closing levels of last week. One of the reasons for this positive rally is that FII have been coming back to Indian Stock Markets. The past week saw strong buying activity from foreign institutional investors (FIIs), wherein they pumped in a total of nearly Rs 13.5 bn. This is the highest figure recorded during the year. Inflation too saw 30 years record low at 0.26% as compared to 0.31% last week.

Other Asian Markets: Other Asian markets such as Japan (up 2.4%), Hong Kong (up 2.4%) and China (up 1%) also ended the week on a positive note.

Major Global Market: As for other global markets, Barring the UK (down 1.1%), Brazil (up 2.6%), Germany (up 2.4%), US (up 0.8%) and France (up 0.5%) ended on a firm note.

The last Friday was really seen as a Good Friday.

Inflation for the week-ended March 28 has come in at 0.26% as against 0.31% a week earlier.  The FY09 provisional average inflation is seen at 8.37% versus 4.67% year-on-year. 

Meanwhile, inflation for week-ended January 31 has been revised to 3.98% versus the provisional figure of 4.39%.  

Inflation number suggest that negative inflation may be seen in a weeks to come.

India: Again for the last week, Indian stock market saw the positive journey as the BSE Sensex ended higher by nearly 3% over its last week’s closing level. It managed to end at 10348 which is very good news for Indian Stock Market. Inflation rose a little to 0.31 from 0.27 a week earlier. Indian Stock Market was closed on Friday for Ram Navmi.

Asian Markets: The other Asian markets such as Hong Kong (up 3%), Japan (up 1.4%) and China (up 1.9%) ended on a positive note as well. It is believed that Asian stocks ended on a positive note on account of the G-20 leaders agreeing on substantial measures to fight the global recession.

Global Markets: All other Major global market ended on a firm note for the week. Brazil led the queue of gainers with about 5.9%. It was followed by Germany (up 4.3%), France (up 4.2%), UK (up 3.4%) and US (3.1% up).

The last week was really a good note for market trend in upcoming days as many of them as breached their resistance levels. But it may not be long lasting.

INFLATION: India’s Inflation rose to 0.31 percent for March 21, marginally above the previous week’s Inflation of 0.27 percent, government data showed on Thursday.

- The annual inflation rate was 7.85 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year.  

- Central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao has said there was no concern about India getting into a deflationary cycle, and said the current challenge was to stem the economic slowdown.

- The wholesale price based-inflation rate has fallen sharply since peaking at 13 percent in August.

- Annual consumer price inflation in February was 9.63 percent, as prices of food products remain firm.

- Since October, the central bank has cut its key lending rate by 400 basis points, while the government has announced spending measures and cut some taxes and duties to revive demand and boost faltering growth.

- India has also cut fuel prices twice since December, helping the inflation rate to fall quickly.

- Annual inflation for the week ended Jan. 24 was revised to 4.70 percent from 5.07 percent.

- The wholesale price index stood at 227.3 points in the week ended March 7.