Tag Archives: State Assembly

Exit Poll Highlights: Congress Gives Tough Fight To BJP

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Elections in the states of Rajasthan and Telangana came to an end yesterday with an average voter turnout of 72.62% in Rajasthan and 67% voter turnout in Telangana. This marked the end for the state assembly elections of 2018, where the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram also went in for polling earlier. The results for all the five states are expected to be declared on 11th December.

After the conclusion of polling in both the states, media outlets released their respective exit poll numbers with most exit polls predicting a sign of worry for BJP, who currently holds three out of the five states that went in for elections. As per the aggregates of major exit polls for assembly elections of 2018, a neck to neck competition between the ruling party BJP and opposition Congress in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh is seen with a possibility of a hung assembly. Meanwhile, BJP is projected to lose the state of Rajasthan to Congress.

Read EquityPandit’s Opinion on State Election Results 2018 and Its Most Probable Impact on the Indian Stock Market

According to India Today-My Axis India exit polls: In Madhya Pradesh, the seat projection looks like 102-120 seats for BJP whereas 104-122 seats for Congress. In Chattisgarh, seat projection seems like 21-31 seats for BJP and 55-65 seats for Congress. In Rajasthan, BJP is expected to win 55-72 seats whereas Congress is likely to win 119-141 seats. In Telangana, TRS is likely to win 71-91 seats whereas, in Mizoram, MNF is likely to come at the top with 16-22 seats.

According to Times Now-CNX, BJP is likely to win in Madhya Pradesh with 126 seats and in Chhattisgarh with 46 seats whereas Congress is likely to Rajasthan with 105 seats. TRS and MNF are likely to come in power in the states of Telangana and Mizoram with 66 and 18 seats respectively. However, according to Republic-CVoter Congress is likely to win 110-126 seats in MP and 42-50 seats in Chhattisgarh. Republic-CVoter also projected clear victory to Congress in Rajasthan with 137 seats.

As per the ABP News-CSDS survey, Congress is projected to win 126 seats in Madhya Pradesh whereas BJP is likely to hold onto power in Chhattisgarh with 52 seats. ABP News-CSDS exit poll also projected Congress to be victorious in Rajasthan with 101 seats. The majority mark for the states is 116 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 46 seats in Chhattisgarh, 101 seats in Rajasthan, 60 seats in Telangana and 21 seats in Mizoram.

If exit polls are to be believed, Congress is heading towards a definite victory in Rajasthan and have a good chance of flipping Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on their side as well. If this comes to be true, then it could lead the market into the negative zone and can cause troubles for the market participants who failed to anticipate such a result. However, the results of Mizoram and Telangana are insignificant from the point of view of the stock market.

Read EquityPandit’s Technical Analysis Of Nifty

Opinion: The State Assembly Elections 2018

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Today marks the last day for the assembly elections 2018, as the states of Rajasthan and Telangana goes into polling. Rajasthan which consists of 199 constituencies and Telangana which houses 119 constituencies are up for electing their state Legislatures. A few days earlier, the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram also appeared for polling and the election results for these states will be declared on December 11.

The conclusion of the polling, which is set to be at 5 PM today, will enable the media houses to publish their exit polls for the states that went for elections. The most recent opinion polls that were published before elections, showcased a loss in the state of Rajasthan and a tough fight in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh for incumbent BJP. In Telangana, the ruling party TRS is more likely to hold onto its power whereas a hung assembly could be the most likely outcome in Mizoram, as per the major opinions polls.

Which States To Watch Closely?

Out of the five states that went in for elections, the outcome for the states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan would be closely watched by the market. The anticipation around the results of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is majorly due to the linkage between the ongoing state elections and the upcoming General Election in 2019. Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh solely consists of about 10% of the total Lok Sabha seats in India and hence will play a major role for the current government who wishes to stay in power.

How Will The Results Impact The Market?

At present, the assumption in the market is that BJP will win in Madhya Pradesh for sure, however, the chances for BJP to come back in power in the state of Rajasthan are very thin. In Equitypandit’s view, if BJP loses both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, it would be a major shock for the market. In that case, NIFTY may go down to 10200 levels. But if BJP loses only in Rajasthan, it would not have a much adverse effect on the market. Nifty at the most may go to 10500 zones and will bounce back from that level.

Overall the technical set up of the market is still bullish, in long-term. The worst-case scenario, which we have mentioned above, may create panic in the market and can drag nifty to sub 10200 levels. Apart from this, the market would remain in a consolidation range only. Nifty to stays between 10500-10900 levels in present expiry.

Read EquityPandit’s Technical Analysis Of Indian Stock Market