Last Trading Session: Market was highly volatile as we had last day of F&O expiry when market opened with a positive gap but went down almost 130 points and again recovered in the last hours and manage to closed above 4732.

Today: Indian Stock Market would open positive as global cues are quite ok. Technically market should remain positive as next target for the nifty is 4830 so buy on every dip is the right trick.

Note: Stocks to trade for F&O, intraday, short-term delivery, long term delivery and short selling and when to exit those stocks would be sent to paid subscribers live during the market hours through SMS.

BSE Sensex: (15922) The support for the Sensex is 15480 and the resistance to the up move is at 16040.

NSE Nifty: (4732) The support for the Nifty is at 4600 and the resistance to the up move is at 4750. 

F&O Cues: FII were net sellers of 289 cr in index future & net sellers of 210 cr in stock future.

Yesterday: As we predicted yesterday that some upmove is possible after a big downtrend a day before, market trend was exactly as per our prediction. Initially market was down due to worse global cues and that market started recovering and closed with a positive trend above 15000 for sensex.

Today: Indian Stock Market may open up. Market is still weak but few surprises can take place with the trend. Trade cautiously as the market trends are trapping stoplosses in all direction.

Note: Stocks to trade for F&O, intraday, short-term delivery, long term delivery and short selling and when to exit those stocks would be sent to paid subscribers live during the market hours through SMS.

BSE Sensex: (15035) The support for the Sensex is 14730-14500 and the resistance to the up move is at 15250-15500.

NSE Nifty: (4459) The support for the Nifty is at 4325 and the resistance to the up move is at 4530-4630. 

Yesterday: As predicted by us, Indian Stock market open down with more than 1% and in second half it recovered again due to short covering. Sensex closed with 100 points down.

Today: Indian Stock Market is expected to open positive with almost 40 points in Nifty. It would be very interesting to see whether nifty would breach and trade above resistance of 4035. And if it closes above or nearer to that range 4100 is the next target on nifty.

Note: Stocks to trade for intraday, short-term delivery, long term delivery, short selling and Futures and when to exit those stocks would be sent to paid subscribers live during the market hours through SMS. 

BSE Sensex: (13400) The support for the Sensex is 13000 and the resistance to the up move is at 13600. 

NSE Nifty: (3974) the support for the Nifty is at 3915 and the resistance to the up move is at 4035. 

F&O Cues: FII were net sellers of 272 crore in Index Future and buyer of 314 crore in stock futures.

Results to be declared today: HDFC Bank, J&K Bank, Power Finance Corporation, Syntex India, Blue Dart

Yesterday: Indian Stock market consolidated after a huge fall of 7% a day earlier and closed positive led by cement, FMCG sectors.

Today: Indian Stock Market is expected to open negative mainly because of negative global cues. Technically still we are firmed on our target of 12500-12800 for sensex so one can create shorts at every higher level.

Note: Stocks to trade for intraday, short-term delivery, long term delivery, short selling and Futures and when to exit those stocks would be sent to paid subscribers live during the market hours through SMS.

BSE Sensex: (14170) The support for the Sensex is 14000 and the resistance to the up move is at 15000.

NSE Nifty: (4202) the support for the Nifty is at 4100-3870 and the resistance to the up move is at 4285        .

F&O Cues: FII were net buyers of 207 crore in Index Future and buyers of 341 crore in stock futures.

Fundamental of Stock Market: Tutorial-2

How Stocks Trade & how price movement take place

Most stocks are traded on exchanges, which are places where buyers and sellers meet and decide on a price. In the beginning most exchanges are physical locations where transactions are carried out on a trading floor, in which traders are wildly throwing their arms up, waving, yelling, and signaling to each other. The other type of exchange is virtual, composed of a network of computers where trades are made electronically. Most of the markets use this type of trading only.

The purpose of a stock market is to facilitate the exchange of securities between buyers and sellers, reducing the risks of investing. Really, a stock market is nothing more than a super-sophisticated farmers’ market linking buyers and sellers.

Before we go on, we should know the difference between the primary market and the secondary market. The primary market is where securities are created (by means of an IPO) while, in the secondary market, investors trade previously-issued securities without the involvement of the issuing-companies. The secondary market is what people are referring to when they talk about the stock market. It is important to understand that the trading of a company’s stock does not directly involve that company.

Stock prices change every day as a result of market forces. By this we mean that share prices change because of supply and demand. If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall.

Understanding supply and demand is easy. What is difficult to comprehend is what makes people like a particular stock and dislike another stock. This comes down to figuring out what news is positive for a company and what news is negative. There are many answers to this problem and just about any investor you ask has their own ideas and strategies.

That being said, the principal theory is that the price movement of a stock indicates what investors feel a company is worth. Don’t equate a company’s value with the stock price. The value of a company is its market capitalization, which is the stock price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding. For example, a company that trades at Rs100 per share and has 1 million shares outstanding has a lesser value than a company that trades at Rs 50 that has 5 million shares outstanding (RS100 x 1 million = Rs100 million while Rs50 x 5 million = Rs 250 million). To further complicate things, the price of a stock doesn’t only reflect a company’s current value; it also reflects the growth that investors expect in the future.

The most important factor that affects the value of a company is its earnings. Earnings are the profit a company makes, and in the long run no company can survive without them. It makes sense when you think about it. If a company never makes money, it isn’t going to stay in business. Public companies are required to report their earnings four times a year (once each quarter). Market watches with extreme attention at these times, which are referred to as earnings seasons. The reason behind this is that analysts base their future value of a company on their earnings projection. If a company’s results surprise (are better than expected), the price jumps up. If a company’s results disappoint (are worse than expected), then the price will fall.

Of course, it’s not just earnings that can change the sentiment towards a stock (which, in turn, changes its price). It would be a rather simple world if this were the case! During the dotcom bubble, for example, dozens of internet companies rose to have market capitalizations in the billions of dollars without ever making even the smallest profit. As we all know, these valuations did not hold, and most internet companies saw their values shrink to a fraction of their highs. Still, the fact that prices did move that much demonstrates that there are factors other than current earnings that influence stocks. Investors have developed literally hundreds of these variables, ratios and indicators. Some you may have already heard of, such as the price/earnings ratio, while others are extremely complicated and obscure with names like Chaikin oscillator or moving average convergence divergence.

So, why do stock prices change? The best answer is that nobody really knows for sure. Some believe that it isn’t possible to predict how stock prices will change, while others think that by drawing charts and looking at past price movements, you can determine when to buy and sell. The only thing we do know is that stocks are volatile and can change in price extremely rapidly.

The important conclusion grasp about this subject are the following:

• At the most fundamental level, supply and demand in the market determines stock prices. 

•  Price times the number of shares outstanding (market capitalization) is the value of a company. Comparing just the share price of two companies is meaningless.

• Theoretically, earnings are what affect investors’ valuation of a company, but there are other indicators that investors use to predict stock price. Remember, it is investors’ sentiments, attitudes and expectations that ultimately affect stock prices.

• There are many theories that try to explain the way stock prices move the way they do. Unfortunately, there is no one theory that can explain everything.

Visit EP Knowledge Center to gain full knowledge about basics of Stock Market and Technical Analysis.

Here are few FAQs that have been discussed with Abhishek Parakh (founder, EquityPandit.com).

Q. Kindly tell us about EquityPandit.com paid services.

Abhishek: EquityPandit.com was started as many of the investors and traders were loosing their hard earned money in downtrend of Indian Stock Markets. EquityPandit.com is providing research analysis to many investors and traders for long time. And of coarse our investors and traders are earning a handsome amount of money in any kind of recession or I may say bear market. So to help them more, EquityPandit.com is providing paid services to sincere traders and investors by SMS live during the market hours. This service include any kind of opportunity that exist in the Indian stock market regarding Intraday, Short Sell, Long Term deliveries, Short term Deliveries and Futures in a single pack.

Q. How this paid subscription is helpful to traders and investors?

Abhishek: Stock Market is place where you can earn huge amount of profits as well as loose huge amount of your hard earned money, it basically depends on the analysis you do. EquityPandit.com is one of the biggest group of financial analysts, who are been certified by Stock Exchanges like NSE. These analysts work on mathematical analysis, technical analysis and other research areas for stock market and come out with the most accurate decisions and best opportunities in Indian stock markets.

We don’t care of recession, bull, bear or any crises because in any kind of situation we are able to maintain our profit levels of 45%-60% per month on the amount of investments you do.

Q. Why these services are not free?

Abhishek: It’s not viable to send SMS to its large amount of visitors and readers. As there are all kind of readers, some are just reading for knowledge, some of them are serious about equity trading to earn money. Just to differentiate between the two, we have put small fees to send our analysis and research to few traders and investors. The fee you provide is just used to maintain your beloved site EquityPandit.com.

Q. How many paid subscribers you are subscribing each month?

Abhishek: The number we have kept is not too large and not too small. Each month we allow only 125 people to subscribe our paid subscription.

Q. What do you suggest small investors and traders.

Abhishek: We suggest small investors and traders to do their own research before investing their hard earned money. Self analysis is very important. Or subscribe to EquityPandit.com Paid services for the best market opportunities. We suggest them not to think about the small fees we are charging. You would be able to earn many times of the fees you provide within a month’s time. But go for intelligent trading and investments.

Final decision is yours….

The BSE Sensex (^BSESN : 10048.49 +45.39 ) rose for a fifth day on Friday, taking gains for the week to 12.1 percent, its best performance since the last week of October, but there were signs of investor fatigue.

Shares seesawed through the day after the BSE index recovered a quarter of its value since hitting a 2009 low in early March, triggering profit-taking in blue chips such as Reliance Industries (RELIANCE.NS : 1548.75 -16.75 ) and Infosys Technologies (INFOSYS.BO : 1346.75 -33.9 ).

The benchmark rose for a third week in a row for the first time since late July last year, while the banking sector index jumped 19.1 percent in its best weekly performance since at least June 2003.

“It doesn’t look like this rally can be sustained over the next two to three weeks. Looking ahead, we have the elections. A lot of things are happening, and there are reasons for concern,” Arun Kejriwal, a strategist at research firm KRIS, said.

The BSE index closed up 0.5 percent at 10,048.49 points, a day after it had climbed past five-digits for the first time since Jan. 7 — when Satyam (SATYAM.BO : 42.75 +0.55 ) Computer unveiled the country’s biggest corporate fraud, sparking a slide.

The rebound was helped by foreign buying of almost $620 million since mid-March, on increasing optimism the global economy was on a steady path to recovery.

However, most Indian fund managers are not enthused by the rally and are in no hurry to cut cash levels, with uncertainty about the political outlook ahead of month-long general elections that begin in mid-April.

Analysts said investors would also have to brace for a weak quarterly earnings season in April, with the outlook for the economy anything but bright.

A top policy adviser said the economic problems will be much worse in 2009 than in the past year. “Is the problem going to end in 2009/10? I don’t think so,” Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said.

India’s economic growth is forecast to fall below 6 percent to a seven-year low in 2009/10 after the global crisis hits Asia’s third-largest economy harder than expected.

Still, banks were in demand on the improving global outlook for battered financials. Government-run State Bank of India (SBIN.NS : 1124.3 +28.8 ), the country’s top lender, firmed 2.9 percent to 1,125.35 rupees.

Private-sector lender ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK.NS : 385.2 +10.15 ) rose almost 3 percent to 385.20 rupees and HDFC Bank gained 0.2 percent to 996.60 rupees.

Reliance Industries, which had risen 17 percent in the past four days, shed 1.2 percent to 1,548 rupees. Infosys fell 2.5 percent to 1,346.75 rupees, but ended the week up 3.8 percent.

Maruti Suzuki slipped 0.7 percent to 765.85 rupees after the leading car maker said it expected Tata Motors (TATAMOTORS.BO : 188.8 +16.1 )’ ultra low-cost car to have a marginal impact on sales of its small-car model.

Matrix Laboratories Ltd (MATRIXLAB.BO : 141.4 +23.55 ) jumped 20 percent to 141.40 rupees, after generic drugmaker Mylan Inc said it plans to acquire the remaining 29 percent it does not already own in the Indian firm.

In the broader section, advancers led losers in the ratio of 1.5:1 on moderate volume of 383 million shares.

The 50-share NSE (^NSEI : 3108.65 +26.4 ) index was up 0.9 percent at 3,108.65.

Asian stocks mostly rose as hopes the global economy could not get any worse kept investors buying riskier assets.

MAIN TOP 3 BY VOLUME

* Reliance Natural Resources on 34.9 million shares

* Unitech on 15.4 million shares

* GVK Power & Infrastructure on 13.2 million shares

STOCKS THAT MOVED

* Financial Technologies rose 8.7 percent to 567 rupees after a block deal of 3.59 million shares, or 8.6 percent of equity, on the BSE.

* Sasken Communication Technologies Ltd gained 18.4 percent to 60.75 rupees after the company said late on Thursday it signed a pact with British satellite communications firm Inmarsat to design global satellite hand-held phones.

We receive many mails and calls for the queries:

-          Market is moving up sharply, should we invest now?

-          Market may go further up, we would not be able to invest than.

-          We were waiting with money in hand to invest when market goes down but suddenly it started going up sharply, what should we do?

Here are answers of all your queries.

Everything that goes up sharply has to come down.

Remember this quote while trading or investing in Stock Market. Market is going up sharply but this is false rally or we may say it is pre-election rally. At this time, Market is over bought, so it is the time to stay away from new investments or trading (Intelligent trading can surely be done to book profits) as market has already seen a upmove of 20%.

This type of market movement is seen before the time of election. It doesn’t means that bear has ended. When the effect of recession is been seen globally, how can bear end.

Market may further see upmove 100-200 points for nifty. But EquityPandit.com suggest not to make fresh investments at this time else you may be trapped and chances of losses are more. This type of movement may be seen till April 1, 2009.

We don’t say that market may come down sharply, but it has to come down as elections are ahead.

What should be strategy for trading now?

One should book profits, (sell your stocks, if you find profits) at this level. One should take out money and even if market goes up by another 200 points, additional risk associated with the rise should not be taken. But we would still say market may be tracked sharply as some good trading opportunity would always come there (only for aggressive traders).

Yesterday: As predicted by us, short covering rally lift the Indian stock market and closed above 9000.

Today: Indian stock market still looks up and may see some good uptrends. Some more short covering rally may be seen as tomorrow is F&O expiry day. Today is the time to square off all the position and book profits.

BSE Sensex: (9004) The target for the Sensex is 9100. The support is at 8845 and the resistance to the up move is at 9200-9250

NSE Nifty: (2771) the target for the Nifty is at 2800.The support is at 2770 and the resistance to the up move is at 2810-2830

Todays pick: Stay away till this F&O expiry and square off all the positions.

Data to watch: Third quarterly results, Global market.

Important Note:  As this is the time to save tax and make better investments, EquityPandit.com is going to publish a complete series of Tax-Saving, where you would find:

-       How much tax you will have to pay?

-       What are various tax exemptions?

-       How to save tax?

-       What should be the best investment strategy to save tax and better returns?

So stay connected with EquityPandit.com and save tax and get better returns.

For any queries, thoughts and suggestion use MessageBoard. Your all queries would surely be answered by our Financial Analysts.

Today: Indian stock market could go up due to last days of F&O but it would be just short covering rally until it crosses 9000 mark.

BSE Sensex: (8674) The Sensex would reach 7900 if it breaks 8400 and the resistance to the up move is at 8950-9050

NSE Nifty: (2679) the Nifty would reach is at 2500 and the resistance to the up move is at 2750-2800

Today’s pick: buy cairn India.

Important Data to watch: Global market, Third quarterly results, Reserve Bank of India monetary policy review statement.

For any queries, thoughts and suggestion use MessageBoard. Your all queries would surely be answered by our Financial Analysts.

Third quarterly results of following companies are going to be disclosed today on Saturday, January 24, 2009. The list includes many big companies which would direct Indian stock market according to their quarterly results.

Today: The Indian Stock market still looks down. Market may start with some down trend.

BSE Sensex: (9406) The support for the Sensex is 9080 and the resistance to the up move is at 9700.

NSE Nifty: (2873) The support for the Nifty is at 2790 and the resistance to the up move is at 2990.

Factors to watch out: Corporate Results and IIP numbers.

Today’s Pick: Buy GVKPIL on intraday basis.

Stay away from F&O as market is very volatile and can move in any direction. Such movement can auto square-off without giving a chance to your broker to inform you to put more money.

For any queries, thoughts and suggestion use MessageBoard. Your all queries would surely be answered by our Financial Analysts.

Market showed a good uptrend on the occasion of New Year, and we can easily say this as “Happy New Year”.  Inflation can down to 6.38% from 6.61%, again we can say this as “Happy New Year”.

Now the real problem lies in psychological mark of 10000 for Sensex and 3076 for Nifty. Market should be able to breach these levels to move up.

BSE Sensex: (9903) The support for the Sensex is 9890 and the resistance to the up move is at 10120-10324. 

NSE Nifty: (3035) the support for the Nifty is at 2920 and the resistance to the up move is at 3080-3110.

Factors to be watch out: Global market and much awaited second stimulus package.

Today’s Peak:  RNRL, IndiaBulls real-estate and GVKPIL (GVK Power).

What is new at EquityPandit.com

EquityPandit.com introduces Message Board for its visitors, where you can discuss all your queries with other visitors and our Financial Analysts.

For any queries, thoughts and suggestion use MessageBoard.

The year 2008 will go down in history as the worst year in terms of the stock market performance. The Sensex has lost 54.05% from the close of the year 2007.

Out of the 22 years that the Sensex has been in existence, the worst annual performance before this has been a loss of 20.79% in the year 1995, it was neither 1993 nor 2001.

Infact 98% of the stocks have lost in value. More than 83% of the stocks have lost 50% or more value.

  And portfolios weren’t the only things suffering. As business suffered losses, corporate governance took the beating.  Even companies that were once considered examples of good governance succumbed to the lure of protecting their own interests than that of the shareholders. Satyam can be considered typical example of such companies.

  From the History, we found, the fall is also seen for the next year of crises. The market fell in 1986,1987, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2001. Its evident that barring 1998, every time the Sensex fell, it do so for two consecutive years. So by analysis, it shows that Year 2009 would not be very good year for Indian Stock market, but definitely a good amount of recovery would be seen.

Today: Indian stock market may see some uptrend but overall trend would be down. The Global market is showing some strength due to fall in dollar index. Indian stock market may start with uptrend but in the next half it would be flat or show some downtrend.

No fresh investment should be done at this point of time. Profit booking can be done at this point by selling your stocks.

As we suggested the stocks to trade in yesterday’s advice, you might have got a good profit in all those stocks in one day trading session.

For today, Some good stocks to trade on are SBI, RANBAXY, RPL, UNION BANK, BHEL, JP ASSOCIATE.