Exit Poll Highlights: Congress Gives Tough Fight To BJP


Elections in the states of Rajasthan and Telangana came to an end yesterday with an average voter turnout of 72.62% in Rajasthan and 67% voter turnout in Telangana. This marked the end for the state assembly elections of 2018, where the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram also went in for polling earlier. The results for all the five states are expected to be declared on 11th December.

After the conclusion of polling in both the states, media outlets released their respective exit poll numbers with most exit polls predicting a sign of worry for BJP, who currently holds three out of the five states that went in for elections. As per the aggregates of major exit polls for assembly elections of 2018, a neck to neck competition between the ruling party BJP and opposition Congress in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh is seen with a possibility of a hung assembly. Meanwhile, BJP is projected to lose the state of Rajasthan to Congress.

Read EquityPandit’s Opinion on State Election Results 2018 and Its Most Probable Impact on the Indian Stock Market

According to India Today-My Axis India exit polls: In Madhya Pradesh, the seat projection looks like 102-120 seats for BJP whereas 104-122 seats for Congress. In Chattisgarh, seat projection seems like 21-31 seats for BJP and 55-65 seats for Congress. In Rajasthan, BJP is expected to win 55-72 seats whereas Congress is likely to win 119-141 seats. In Telangana, TRS is likely to win 71-91 seats whereas, in Mizoram, MNF is likely to come at the top with 16-22 seats.

According to Times Now-CNX, BJP is likely to win in Madhya Pradesh with 126 seats and in Chhattisgarh with 46 seats whereas Congress is likely to Rajasthan with 105 seats. TRS and MNF are likely to come in power in the states of Telangana and Mizoram with 66 and 18 seats respectively. However, according to Republic-CVoter Congress is likely to win 110-126 seats in MP and 42-50 seats in Chhattisgarh. Republic-CVoter also projected clear victory to Congress in Rajasthan with 137 seats.

As per the ABP News-CSDS survey, Congress is projected to win 126 seats in Madhya Pradesh whereas BJP is likely to hold onto power in Chhattisgarh with 52 seats. ABP News-CSDS exit poll also projected Congress to be victorious in Rajasthan with 101 seats. The majority mark for the states is 116 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 46 seats in Chhattisgarh, 101 seats in Rajasthan, 60 seats in Telangana and 21 seats in Mizoram.

If exit polls are to be believed, Congress is heading towards a definite victory in Rajasthan and have a good chance of flipping Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on their side as well. If this comes to be true, then it could lead the market into the negative zone and can cause troubles for the market participants who failed to anticipate such a result. However, the results of Mizoram and Telangana are insignificant from the point of view of the stock market.

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