India’s headline retail inflation is anticipated to drop to a 15-month low in March. According to a Moneycontrol 15 economist’s survey, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell sharply to 5.7% last month from 6.44% in February.

At 5.7%, CPI inflation would return to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) mandated tolerance band of 2-6% after two months. Since 2022, inflation has been above the 6% threshold, spending 41 months above RBI’s medium-term target of 4%.

On April 12, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release retail inflation data. In March 2022, the CPI jumped 1% MoM, creating a high base for the inflation print in March.

Prices of food items like dairy products, fruits, meat, and pulses soared sequentially. A high base is likely to drag the ‘food and beverage’ group inflation below 5% from 6.26% in February.

Besides, fuel prices are predicted to push up overall inflation amid the LPG price hike in March. Inflation excluding food and fuel items elevated at around 6%.

On April 6, the latest inflation data comes after RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised markets by keeping the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5%.

The rate-setting panel cited its 250 bps rate hikes in 2022-23.

The statistics ministry will also release Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for February on April 12. This is expected that industrial output will grow by 5.8%, according to the 13 economists polled by Moneycontrol.

The data from the March quarter displays the output of eight core sectors rose by 6% in February, down from 8.9% in January. Core industries account for around 40% of the IIP.

India’s merchandise exports contracted in the past five months on YoY, with growth in one of the other two months at an anaemic 1.5%. Over these five months, India’s goods exports shrank by 2.5% on average.