With global trade tensions rising due to tariff hikes, all eyes are on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy decision on 9th April. Experts expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to weigh these risks while focusing on domestic factors.

A 25-bps rate cut is widely anticipated, with inflation cooling, growth slowing, crude oil prices falling, and US bond yields dipping. While many foresee further reductions in June, opinions differ on the RBI’s stance—about half expect a shift to ‘accommodative,’ while 40% believe it may remain ‘neutral’ amid global uncertainties.

Most predict the repo rate could bottom out around 5.5%, implying a total 75-bps cut. No major liquidity surprises are expected, as the RBI has already eased conditions through open market operations and currency swaps. Further liquidity measures would be market-positive.

Higher global tariffs could shave 30–60 bps off India’s GDP growth, but the RBI will likely maintain or slightly lower its forecast. On inflation, 60% expect no change, while 40% foresee a slight revision to 4–4.1%.

Overall, the policy is expected to be dovish, with the RBI balancing global risks and domestic growth. Further rate cuts may be on the horizon.

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