Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to open flat on Monday as weak overnight global cues weigh on sentiment.

Asian markets traded lower, and US stock futures slipped following a strong May performance, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their biggest monthly percentage gains since November 2023.

This week, investors will keep a close eye on key market drivers, including the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, global tariff developments, monthly auto sales, foreign capital flows, macroeconomic data, and other international cues.

Earlier on Friday, the Indian stock market closed in the red, although the Nifty 50 ended May with a 1.7% gain, marking its third straight monthly advance.

Domestic Market Recap

On Friday, Indian indices closed in the red:

• Sensex slumped by 182.01 points (-0.22%) to close at 81,451.01
• Nifty 50 moved down by 82.90 points (-0.33%) to settle at 24,750.70

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty was trading near 24,870, around 1 point lower than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a lacklustre start for Indian markets.

Wall Street Performance

The US stock market closed nearly flat on Friday after a volatile session, as President Donald Trump first criticized China but later struck an optimistic tone about reaching a trade agreement.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average gained by 54.34 (0.13%) points to close at 42,270.07.
• S&P 500 down by 0.48 points (0.01%), ending at 5,911.69.
• The Nasdaq Composite was lower by 62.11 points (0.32%), finishing at 19,113.77.

Overnight Major Global Events Driving Sentiment

1. India GDP: India’s economy expanded at a slower pace of 7.4% in the March quarter of FY25, pulling down the overall growth for 2024–25 to 6.5%. This growth rate for January–March was below the 8.4% recorded in the same quarter a year earlier.
2. Russia-Ukraine War: Ukrainian forces destroyed more than 40 Russian aircraft in a drone strike deep inside Russian territory, while Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Ukraine just hours before fresh peace talks were set to begin in Istanbul.
3. Trump Tariffs: US President Donald Trump announced that his administration would double steel tariffs from 25% to 50%, effective Wednesday, June 4. He also highlighted the strategic partnership between Japan’s Nippon Steel and US Steel.
4. US PCE Price Index: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in the US edged up by 0.1% in April, following no change in March. On a year-on-year basis, PCE inflation eased to 2.1% from 2.3% in March. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE index also rose 0.1% last month.
5. Fiscal Deficit: India’s government recorded a fiscal deficit of Rs 15.77 lakh crore in FY25, slightly exceeding the estimated Rs 15.70 lakh crore but still below the Rs 16.54 lakh crore posted in FY24. The FY25 deficit stood at 4.8% of GDP, with a target to reduce it further to 4.4% in FY26.
6. GST Collections: The government collected over Rs 2.01 lakh crore in Goods and Services Tax (GST) in May, marking a 16.4% year-on-year increase. This follows April’s record-high collection of Rs 2.37 lakh crore.

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