The equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 will likely open higher on Monday, tracking mixed overnight signals from global markets.

Asian markets traded mostly higher, while the US stock market closed lower last week after weak jobs data.

This week, investors will track key triggers such as developments on Trump tariffs, inflation data from the US and India, foreign fund flows, movements in gold and silver prices, along with other domestic and global macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

However, on Friday, the Indian stock market closed flat as investors booked profits amid worries over Trump tariffs, their potential economic fallout, and continued foreign capital outflows.

Domestic Market Recap

On Friday, Indian indices closed flat:

• Sensex dropped by 7.25 points (0.01%) to close at 80,710.76
• Nifty 50 moved up by 6.70 points (0.03%) to settle at 24,741

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty was trading near 24,909, around 62 points higher than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a positive start for Indian markets.

Wall Street Performance

Investors pulled the US stock market lower on Friday as they balanced economic concerns with optimism over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 220.43 points (0.48%) to close at 45,400.86.
• S&P 500 down by 20.58 points (0.32%), ending at 6,481.50.
• The Nasdaq Composite was trading lower by 7.31 points (0.03%), finishing at 21,700.39.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices climbed after OPEC agreed to increase output further, but at a slower pace starting in October.

• Brent crude gained by 0.5% to $65.83/barrel
• US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading 0.48% higher at $62.17/barrel

Gold Prices

Gold prices stayed firm near their all-time high, edging closer to the $3,600 mark.

• Spot gold was trading up by 0.1% at $3,588.48/oz
• US gold futures were trading 0.7% lower at $3,628.50

Overnight Major Global Events Driving Sentiment

1. Auto Price Cuts: Indian automakers slashed car prices after the GST rate cut. Hyundai Motor India and Tata Motors reduced prices across their lineups, while Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and Renault had already lowered prices to pass on GST benefits to buyers.
2. Trump Tariffs: US President Donald Trump assured at the White House that US-India ties faced “nothing to worry about,” calling the relationship “special.” He praised PM Narendra Modi as a “great prime minister” and “friend.” Modi later responded on X, saying he “deeply” valued and reciprocated Trump’s sentiments.
3. Russia-Ukraine War: Russia carried out its largest air assault of the war on Ukraine, striking central Kyiv, setting the main government building ablaze, and killing at least four people.
4. US Nonfarm Payrolls: US job growth slowed sharply in August as nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000, compared with July’s upwardly revised gain of 79,000. 
5. US Unemployment Rate: The US unemployment rate climbed to a near four-year high of 4.3% in August. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from July, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.7% from 3.9% in the prior month.
6. OPEC Output Raise: OPEC members agreed to lift oil output by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, a much smaller increase than the 555,000 bpd hikes in September and August, and the 411,000 bpd rises in July and June.
7. Japan PM Resigns: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned on Sunday, citing responsibility for a string of election defeats. His exit ushers in a period of political uncertainty for the world’s fourth-largest economy.
8. Japan GDP: Japan’s GDP grew at an annualised 2.2% in April-June, beating expectations. Quarter-on-quarter growth reached 0.5%, higher than the forecast and initial estimate of 0.3%.

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