The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Friday after a sharp decline in overnight global markets, as the ongoing war in the Middle East between the US and Israel against Iran pushed oil prices higher worldwide.

Asian markets traded lower, while the US stock market slumped overnight as the escalating US–Iran conflict drove crude oil prices up and raised concerns about rising inflation.

However, on Thursday, the Indian stock market closed with strong gains as investors covered short positions following three sessions of steep losses triggered by persistent worries over the ongoing US–Iran war in the Middle East.

Domestic Market Recap

On Thursday, Indian indices closed green:

• Sensex gained by 899.71 points (1.14%) to close at 80,015.90
• Nifty 50 moved up by 285.40 points (1.17%) to settle at 24,765.90

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty was trading near 24,605, around 249 points lower than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a negative start for Indian markets.

Overnight Wall Street Performance

The US stock market ended sharply lower on Thursday as the Middle East conflict entered its sixth day, pushing oil prices higher.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped by 784.67 points (1.61%) to close at 49,954.74.
• S&P 500 down by 38.79 points (0.56%), ending at 6,830.71.
• The Nasdaq Composite was lower by 58.50 points (0.26%), finishing at 22,748.99.

Crude Oil Prices

• Brent crude slumped by 0.50% to $81.02/barrel
• US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading 0.54% higher at $76.75/barrel

Overnight Major Global Events Driving Sentiment

1. US Treasury Yields: US Treasury yields extended their upward trend for a fourth consecutive session. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.132% after briefly touching a three-week high of 4.15%. The 30-year bond yield gained 2.6 basis points to 4.743% after hitting 4.772%, its highest level since February 12. Meanwhile, the yield on two-year Treasury notes climbed as much as 5 basis points to 3.60%, the highest level since January 28.
2. Japanese Bond Yields: Japanese government bond (JGB) yields moved slightly higher. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield increased by 1.5 basis points to 2.170%, while the 20-year yield rose 1 basis point to 2.990%. The 30-year yield remained unchanged at 3.375%, whereas the 40-year JGB yield slipped 0.5 basis points to 3.585%.
3. Russian Oil: The US granted a general license allowing limited sales of Russian oil to India as escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf disrupted supplies from a major oil-producing region. The license permits transactions involving Russian crude oil and petroleum products that were loaded onto vessels before March 5, provided they are delivered to India and purchased by an Indian company. The authorisation will remain valid until April 4 at 12:01 a.m. Washington time.
4. US-Israel-Iran War: Iran stepped up attacks across the Gulf in retaliation for US and Israeli military operations that killed its supreme leader last weekend. In the latest incident, an Iranian missile strike triggered a fire at Bahrain’s state-run oil refinery on Thursday, although authorities later managed to bring the blaze under control.

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