The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower and extend their losses on Thursday, tracking weakness in the overnight global markets. Rising crude oil prices amid the escalating US-Iran war have heightened inflation concerns and unsettled investor sentiment.

Asian markets traded lower, while the US stock market closed on a mixed note overnight despite subdued inflation data.

Moreover, on Wednesday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower as investors remained cautious over the ongoing US-Iran war and engaged in profit booking.

Domestic Market Recap

On Wednesday, Indian indices closed red:

• Sensex crashed by 1,342.27 points (1.72%) to close at 76,863.71
• Nifty 50 moved down by 394.75 points (1.63%) to settle at 23,866.85

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty was trading near 23,813, around 125 points lower than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a negative start for Indian markets.

Overnight Wall Street Performance

The US stock market ended mixed on Wednesday, as investors largely looked past a softer-than-expected inflation report while remaining cautious about the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined, while the S&P 500 edged slightly lower and the Nasdaq posted modest gains, reflecting a split performance across sectors.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped by 289.24 points (0.61%) to close at 47,417.27.
• S&P 500 down by 5.68 points (0.08%), ending at 6,775.80.
• The Nasdaq Composite was higher by 19.03 points (0.08%), finishing at 22,716.14.

Crude Oil Prices

• Brent crude surged by 7.40% to $98.79/barrel
• US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading 6.87% soared at $93.347/barrel

Overnight Major Global Events Driving Sentiment

1. US–Iran War: The conflict between the United States and Iran shows no signs of ending soon. US President Donald Trump said the US must “finish the job,” while Iran warned that global oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel after its attacks on tankers in Iraqi waters and vessels near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported. At the same time, Israeli strikes targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs after the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets into northern Israel.
2. US Inflation: US consumer prices rose moderately in February. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% during the month, following a 0.2% rise in January. On an annual basis, CPI climbed 2.4% in the 12 months through February, matching the previous month’s increase and aligning with economists’ expectations.
3. IEA Oil Release: The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced plans to release 400 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves to the market. The move aims to stabilise supply and ease disruptions caused by the ongoing US–Iran conflict in the Middle East.
4. US Treasury Yields: US Treasury yields moved higher on Wednesday as rising oil prices heightened inflation concerns and reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note climbed 6.3 basis points to 3.632%, after earlier touching 3.648%, its highest level since September 26. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 4.206%, after briefly reaching 4.226%, the highest level since February 9.

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