The Indian stock market benchmark indices, BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a subdued note on Friday, tracking mixed overnight  global market signals and investor caution ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy announcement.

Asian markets traded sharply lower, while the US stock market closed on a mixed note overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending at a record high.

Investors will closely monitor the monetary policy decision of the Reserve Bank of India later today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), chaired by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, is widely expected to leave the repo rate unchanged. Market participants will also focus on the central bank’s outlook on inflation, liquidity conditions, crude oil price risks, and the rupee.

Moreover, on Thursday, the Indian stock market finished a volatile, range-bound session nearly unchanged but with a positive bias, as investors remained cautious ahead of the RBI policy outcome.

Domestic Market Recap

On Thursday, Indian indices green:

• Sensex gained by 13.84 points (0.02%) to close at 74,360.01
• Nifty 50 moved up by 10.95 points (0.5%) to settle at 23,416.55

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty was trading near 23,495, around 17 points lower than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a lacklustre start for Indian markets.

Overnight Wall Street Performance

The US stock market closed on a mixed note on Thursday as investors assessed progress in negotiations aimed at ending the Iran war.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by 874.86 points (1.73%) to close at 51,561.93.
• S&P 500 was up by 30.63 points (0.41%), ending at 7,584.31.
• The Nasdaq Composite was lower by 23.02 points (0.09%), finishing at 27,830.96.

Crude Oil Prices

• Brent crude slipped by 0.22% to $95.24/barrel
• US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading 0.11% lower at $92.94/barrel

Overnight Major Global Events Driving Sentiment

1. US–Iran War: US President Donald Trump has dropped plans for a military operation aimed at seizing Iran’s enriched uranium from its nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire unraveled shortly after it was announced. Within hours, Israel launched heavy strikes on southern Lebanon, while the Iran-backed Hezbollah rejected the agreement and fired rockets at Israeli targets.
2. US Jobless Claims: The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended May 30, exceeding economists’ forecast of 213,000 claims. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims edged up by 6,500 to 214,750.

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