The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Tuesday, tracking weakness in the overnight global markets as the escalating US-Iran conflict pushes crude oil prices higher and dampens investor sentiment.

Asian markets traded on a mixed note, while the US stock market closed lower as a sell-off in semiconductor stocks weighed on the major indices.

The Indian stock market indices closed largely flat with a slight positive bias on Monday as investors navigated high volatility and elevated crude oil prices amid the escalating US-Iran conflict.

Domestic Market Recap

On Tuesday, Indian indices ended green:

• Sensex gained by 47.01 points (0.06%) to close at 77,616.40.
• Nifty 50 moved up by 4.10 points (0.02%) to settle at 24,211.00

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty was trading near 24,049, around 193 points lower than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a negative start for Indian markets.

Overnight Wall Street Performance

The US stock market closed lower on Monday as the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher and weakened investors’ appetite for risk.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped by 138.31 points (0.26%) to close at 52,498.70.
• S&P 500 was down by 59.92 points (0.79%), ending at 7.515.47.
• The Nasdaq Composite was lower by 408.43 points (1.55%), finishing at 25,873.18.

Crude Oil Prices

• Brent crude surged by 2% to $84.98/barrel
• US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading 2.1% higher at $79.79/barrel

Overnight Major Global Events Driving Sentiment

1. US-Iran War: US President Donald Trump formally notified lawmakers that the country had once again entered a war with Iran, allowing his administration to conduct military operations in the region for 60 days without congressional approval. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen said they launched missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport.
2. India CPI Inflation, Trade Deficit: India’s retail inflation accelerated to 4.38% in June from 3.93% in May as higher food prices increased inflationary pressure. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading also exceeded the median forecast of 4.2%. Meanwhile, India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a five-month high of $30.43 billion in June from $28.21 billion in May. Including services, India’s total exports increased 9.5% year-on-year to $73.45 billion in June, while total imports surged 26.8% to $88.76 billion. As a result, the overall trade deficit widened sharply to $15.32 billion from $2.89 billion in June 2025.
3. Bond Yields: US Treasury yields rose sharply overnight as higher oil prices fueled inflation concerns amid renewed US-Iran tensions. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed 4.9 basis points to 4.618%, while the 30-year bond yield increased 3.3 basis points to 5.104%. Meanwhile, the two-year Treasury yield jumped 6.5 basis points to 4.273%.

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