Despite a sharp plunge in exports to the US, China is steering global trade flows in its favour, with rising shipments to Asia, Europe, and Africa keeping the country on track for a record trade surplus of over $1.2 trillion this year.

In August, exports rose 4.4% year-over-year to $322 billion, missing forecasts and slowing from July’s 7.2% growth. Exports to the US fell 33%, marking the fifth straight month of steep declines. But exports to Southeast Asia surged 23%, the EU climbed 10%, and Africa jumped 26%, highlighting how Beijing is offsetting losses in its biggest market.

From January to August, China recorded a trade surplus of $785 billion—almost a third higher than the same period in 2024—despite US tariffs of up to 55% that have forced companies to diversify supply chains. Many firms are still struggling with falling prices and tighter competition, as industrial profits slipped nearly 2% in the year through July.

The pressure on exporters is visible in container activity: Shanghai’s port set a record in August, while ports across China handled over 6.5 million containers weekly for five straight weeks.

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