China’s export growth slipped to its lowest level in nearly two years in April, customs data showed on Monday, as a resurgence of the coronavirus outbreak shut factories, triggered traffic restrictions and caused congestion at major ports. The damage to the world’s second-largest economy is mounting as millions are confined to their homes, especially in Shanghai’s main business hub, to stem the worst coronavirus recovery since the early days of the pandemic, data showed.

Beijing has adhered to a strict zero-virus policy, including lockdowns and mass testing, but economic costs rise as manufacturing centres and supply chains shrink under severe restrictions. Export growth slowed to 3.9 per cent last month from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said on Monday. While that was above analysts’ expectations for a 2.7 per cent increase, it was the lowest since June 2020, according to a Bloomberg poll.

Import growth was flat in April, an improvement from a 0.1 per cent contraction in March, as Chinese consumers remained hesitant amid a series of nationwide restrictions. Lu Ting, the Chief China economist at Nomura, told AFP: “Export growth is likely to worsen in the coming months due to the pandemic and China’s strict Covid-19 containment measures, a drop in external demand and loss of orders from other regions.” Last month, China posted a trade surplus of $51.1 billion, official data showed.

China’s largest city, Shanghai, went into near-total lockdown in April. It became the epicentre of the country’s worst coronavirus surge, with many factories closed, a shortage of truck drivers and a piling up of cargo at ports. Other cities, including the capital Beijing, also appear to be facing restrictions.

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“Blockades and rising input costs in big cities like Shanghai are the main reasons for the sluggish trade data,” said Xing Zhaopeng, an analyst at ANZ Research. Despite assurances from top leaders on technology, infrastructure and jobs, experts have warned that Beijing’s unwavering adherence to its zero COVID-19 strategies will continue to hamper growth.