India Ratings Cuts FY22 GDP Forecast to 9.4%

India Ratings cut its FY22 GDP growth for India to 9.4 per cent from 9.6 per cent. “Seeing the speed of vaccination, it’s clear that India will not be able to vaccinate its whole adult population by December 31 of this year,” Economist Sunil Kumar Sinha said.

In the previous report of June, the rating agency had told that the recovery would depend on the vaccination drive. “If India vaccinates its entire adult population by 31 December 2021, then the GDP growth is assumed to be at 9.6 per cent, or else it can drop to 9.1 per cent,” the report said.

The survey suggests that daily 5.2 million doses will have to be given from August 18 to vaccinate above 88 per cent of the adult population by the year-end. “We have updated GDP growth for FY22 to 9.4 per cent as the second waves about to end, and many high-frequency signs are displaying a faster recovery than expected, Kharif sowing is a notable pick-up with the return of southwest monsoon and exports size and growth gave a surprise turnaround,” Sinha added.

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