According to industry officials, India’s coffee exports are projected to decline by over 10% in 2025 due to reduced production and lower carry-forward stocks despite record-high prices.
As the world’s seventh-largest coffee grower, India mainly produces robusta beans for instant coffee and some arabica beans.
The decline in Indian exports could further tighten global supplies already affected by Brazil’s weaker output, sustaining record-high benchmark futures. High summer temperatures, water scarcity, and heavy rains have delayed harvesting and reduced yields.
India harvested 374,200 tons of coffee in the 2023/24 season, but officials now report lower yields for the current season.
Increased exports in 2024, driven by record prices and anticipation of EU deforestation regulations, depleted stocks, limiting the surplus available for exports in 2025.
Key European buyers like Italy, Germany, and Belgium have slowed purchases due to high prices, although Indian robusta continues to fetch a $250 premium over London futures.
Farmers are holding back crops, anticipating further price rallies, experts from Volcafe noted.
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