India’s inflation is projected to ease in the fourth quarter, aligning with the 4% target by FY26, driven by a strong Rabi harvest, according to the Economic Survey 2024-25.

The IMF reported a decline in global inflation to 5.7% by 2024, down from 8.7% in 2022, while India’s retail inflation also decreased from 5.4% in FY24 to 4.9% in FY25, as noted in the survey.

The Economic Survey highlighted risks to inflation from global political and economic uncertainties, stressing the importance of careful policy interventions. 

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the survey in the Lok Sabha ahead of the Union Budget. 

Prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs, the document reviews the state of the economy and outlines short-to-medium-term economic prospects.

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