Indian equity markets remained largely flat on Thursday after three consecutive sessions of losses. The Sensex was around 74,770, while the Nifty 50 traded near 23,430 in morning trade. The market is struggling to recover as Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel, the rupee stays under pressure and investors remain cautious ahead of key US inflation data.

1. Crude Oil Remains Above $100

The biggest concern for Indian markets continues to be crude oil. Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel after fresh attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices are negative for India because the country depends heavily on imported crude. Expensive oil can increase the import bill, put pressure on inflation and raise costs for companies across several sectors.

2. US-Iran Tensions Keep Risk Appetite Low

The latest attacks involving the US and Iran have increased fears of a longer conflict and further disruption to energy supplies. Iran reportedly attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after US forces targeted Iranian oil tankers. This has kept global investors cautious and pushed markets to focus more closely on energy prices and geopolitical risks.

3. Rupee Weakness Adds to the Pressure

The Indian rupee weakened to around Rs 95.30 against the US dollar, its weakest level in about 10 days. Rising crude prices are increasing demand for dollars from importers, while expected capital outflows are adding further pressure. The RBI appears to be supporting the rupee through state-run banks, but continued oil price gains could make the currency more vulnerable.

4. Higher Bond Yields Raise Rate Concerns

Global bond yields have moved higher as investors worry that expensive oil could push inflation up again. The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since 2023. This is important for Indian equities because higher US yields can reduce the attractiveness of emerging-market assets and increase expectations of tighter monetary policy.

5. Investors Await US Inflation Data

Markets are also waiting for important US inflation data later this week. The data could influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. Current market pricing puts significant odds on a Fed rate hike, making inflation numbers particularly important for global equities, bond yields, the dollar and foreign flows into emerging markets such as India.

Key Technical Analysis

Sensex Technical Outlook

The Sensex is hovering around 74,750 after falling sharply in the previous session. The index remains below the 75,000 mark, keeping the short-term trend weak. Immediate support is around 74,500, while 75,000-75,300 is the first resistance zone. A sustained move above 75,300 could provide some relief, while a break below 74,500 may extend the correction.

Nifty 50 Technical Outlook

The Nifty is trading near 23,430 and remains in a bearish setup after falling for three consecutive sessions. Analysts are watching 23,300 as an important support level, followed by 23,070. On the upside, 23,500-23,600 is the immediate resistance zone. A decisive break below 23,300 could increase selling pressure towards the June low near 23,070.

Bank Nifty Technical Outlook

Bank Nifty remains under pressure after four consecutive negative sessions and is trading below key moving averages. The 56,000-55,900 zone is an important support area, while 56,700-57,000 could act as resistance. A break below 55,900 may open the door towards 55,600-55,400, while a move above 57,000 would improve the short-term setup.

Today’s Key Takeaway

The market is attempting to stabilise after a sharp sell-off, but high crude oil prices remain the biggest obstacle. Brent above $100, a weaker rupee, rising global bond yields and US-Iran tensions are keeping investors cautious. For the Nifty, 23,300 is the key support, while reclaiming 23,600 would be the first sign that selling pressure is easing.

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