Blinkit’s push into Tier-2 cities is running into a problem, lower order values are testing whether its metro model can scale.

Smaller towns do have some advantages. Rent is cheaper, so is labour, and store formats are smaller too. Together, those bring down the break-even point by roughly a third.

Emkay Global estimates a Tier-2 dark store needs around 800 orders a day to break even, against about 1,300 in a metro. Blinkit is entering this phase from a position of strength.

It’s the only major quick commerce player that’s profitable at the operating level, running over 2,400 dark stores across more than 300 cities.

But the numbers already show a trade-off. Blinkit’s average order value slipped to Rs 518 in the April-June quarter, down from Rs 525 the quarter before.

The company pointed to its expansion into smaller towns as part of the reason, along with customers placing more frequent, smaller orders and a shift toward lower-priced products in its assortment.

This dip isn’t short-term. Shoppers in Tier-2 and Tier-3 towns tend to make fewer big-ticket purchases, so Blinkit’s will need very high order volumes to make up for smaller baskets.

The product range is shrinking too as the company moves outward. Delhi-NCR gets around 80,000 items to choose from, the next seven cities get about 50,000, and everywhere beyond the top eight cities gets roughly 20,000.

Premium formats like Gourmet stores are staying limited to the biggest cities for now.

The real test for Blinkit is whether it can keep order volumes high even as basket sizes shrink. That’s what will decide if this expansion actually pays off.

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