The odds of Russia making its foreign debt payments are diminishing as bond prices fall, recession in the nation looms, and various payment restrictions pile up after the invasion of Ukraine, according to Morgan Stanley & Co.

“We see a default as the most likely scenario,” Simon Waever, the firm’s global head of emerging-market sovereign credit strategy, wrote in a Monday note. “In case of default, it is unlikely to be like a normal one, with Venezuela instead perhaps the most relevant comparison.”

• PM Modi to Inaugurate Noida Airport on 28th March
• Fullife Raises Rs 300 Cr, IPO Plans a Few Years Away
• NBD Bank Gets Nod from Central Bank to Acquire Stake in RBL Bank
• LIC Gets Slammed with Rs 6,146 Crore Tax Demand
• L&T Tech Planning to Sell its Unit to AMI Paradigm Solutions

The default may come as soon as April 15, which will mark the end of a 30-day grace period on coupon payments the Russian government owes on dollar bonds due in 2023 and 2043, he said.

“The potential for significant further selling will put additional downside pressure on prices,” Waever wrote. “We see a minimal incentive for any investor to step into Russian sovereign bonds at this point.”