The odds of Russia making its foreign debt payments are diminishing as bond prices fall, recession in the nation looms, and various payment restrictions pile up after the invasion of Ukraine, according to Morgan Stanley & Co.

“We see a default as the most likely scenario,” Simon Waever, the firm’s global head of emerging-market sovereign credit strategy, wrote in a Monday note. “In case of default, it is unlikely to be like a normal one, with Venezuela instead perhaps the most relevant comparison.”

• Vedanta Outlook for the Week (April 29, 2024 – May 03, 2024)
• Tata Steel Outlook for the Week (April 29, 2024 – May 03, 2024)
• PFC Outlook for the Week (April 29, 2024 – May 03, 2024)
• Piramal Enterprises Outlook for the Week (April 29, 2024 – May 03, 2024)
• MANAPPURAM Outlook for the Week (April 29, 2024 – May 03, 2024)

The default may come as soon as April 15, which will mark the end of a 30-day grace period on coupon payments the Russian government owes on dollar bonds due in 2023 and 2043, he said.

“The potential for significant further selling will put additional downside pressure on prices,” Waever wrote. “We see a minimal incentive for any investor to step into Russian sovereign bonds at this point.”