India’s benchmark stock market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Friday as an overnight global market sell-off continues to weigh on sentiment, with the prolonged US–Iran war prompting investors to stay away from riskier assets.

Asian markets tumbled, while the US stock market closed sharply lower overnight as crude oil prices surged close to $100 per barrel.

However, on Thursday, the Indian stock market declined sharply again, pressured by concerns over rising crude oil prices amid the ongoing US–Iran conflict.

Domestic Market Recap

On Thursday, Indian indices closed red:

• Sensex slumped by 829.29 points (1.08%) to close at 76,034.42
• Nifty 50 moved down by 227.70 points (0.95%) to settle at 23,639.15

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty was trading near 23,555, around 173 points lower than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a negative start for Indian markets.

Overnight Wall Street Performance

The US stock market closed lower on Thursday after Iranian strikes on two oil tankers pushed crude oil prices closer to $100 per barrel, intensifying concerns over rising inflation.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed by 739.42 points (1.56%) to close at 46,677.85.
• S&P 500 down by 103.22 points (1.52%), ending at 6,672.58.
• The Nasdaq Composite was lower by 404.15 points (1.78%), finishing at 22,311.98.

Crude Oil Prices

• Brent crude slipped by 0.73% to $99.73/barrel
• US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading 0.86% soared at $94.917/barrel

Overnight Major Global Events Driving Sentiment

1. US–Iran War: Leaders of Iran, Israel, and the United States have all adopted a defiant stance as the Middle East war approaches its two-week mark, Reuters reported. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, delivered his first strong remarks, vowing to continue the fight and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. He also urged neighbouring countries to shut down US military bases on their territory or face the risk of Iranian attacks.
2. India Inflation: India’s retail inflation rose to 3.21% in February, driven by higher prices of food and beverages, clothing, housing, and utility services. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data cannot be compared with the year-ago period because the index basket was reset in January. Retail inflation stood at 2.75% in January, marking the first reading under the new series with 2024 as the base year.
3. Russian Oil: The United States issued a 30-day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea. According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the move aims to stabilise global energy markets disrupted by the ongoing Iran war.

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