The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Monday as investors take overnight cues from progress in the US–Iran peace negotiations. However, rising crude oil prices and elevated bond yields continue to fuel concerns about higher inflation and the possibility of a US interest rate hike.

Asian markets traded mostly higher, while US stock futures edged lower as investors closely tracked the latest developments in the US–Iran peace talks.

However, on Friday, the Indian stock market closed lower, ending its five-session winning streak, as a sharp selloff in information technology stocks weighed on market sentiment.

Domestic Market Recap

On Friday, Indian indices ended red:

• Sensex slumped by 607.08 points (0.78%) to close at 76,802.90
• Nifty 50 moved down by 154.90 points (0.64%) to settle at 24,013.10

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty was trading near 24,154, around 97 points higher than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a positive start for Indian markets.

Overnight Wall Street Performance

US stock markets remained closed on Friday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth, a US federal holiday that commemorates the end of slavery in the United States. As a result, trading did not take place on Wall Street, and investors instead focused on developments in the US–Iran peace talks and broader global market trends.

Crude Oil Prices

• Brent crude slumped by 0.83% to $81.24/barrel
• US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading 2.04% lower at $77.40/barrel

Overnight Major Global Events Driving Sentiment

1. US–Iran Peace Talks: Iranian negotiators said discussions with the United States had made progress, easing concerns that the peace process was losing momentum. Officials from Qatar and Pakistan announced that the first round of talks had concluded successfully, with both sides agreeing on a roadmap aimed at reaching a final agreement within the next 60 days.
2. RBI MPC Meeting Minutes: The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting showed that all six members supported maintaining the current policy stance and benchmark interest rates. Policymakers opted for a wait-and-watch approach, citing significant uncertainty around inflation and economic growth due to the ongoing US–Iran conflict.
3. Japanese Bond Yields: Japanese government bond yields extended their upward trend for a third consecutive session amid concerns over inflation and fiscal sustainability. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 3 basis points to 2.675%.
4. China LPR: People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 13th straight month in June. The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained at 3.00%, while the five-year LPR stayed at 3.50%, in line with market expectations.

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