The benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to open higher on Monday, even as overnight global market cues remain mixed. Asian markets traded mixed, while US stocks closed higher last week after the release of inflation data.

This week, investors will track key triggers such as the RBI’s monetary policy, progress on the India-US trade deal, updates on US tariffs, domestic and global macroeconomic indicators, foreign fund flows, gold price trends, and major geopolitical developments.

However, on Friday, Indian equities ended sharply lower, marking their sixth straight session of losses, as fresh Trump tariffs on pharmaceuticals and continued foreign fund outflows dampened sentiment.

Domestic Market Recap

On Friday, Indian indices closed in the red:

• Sensex slumped by 733.22 points (0.90%) to close at 80,426.46
• Nifty 50 moved down by 236.15 points (0.95%) to settle at 24,654.70

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty was trading near 24,810, around 120 points higher than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a positive start for Indian markets.

Overnight Wall Street Performance

The US stocks closed higher on Friday after inflation data came in largely in line with expectations. However, all three major indexes ended the week lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq breaking their three-week winning streaks.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 299.97 points (0.65%) to close at 46,247.29.
• S&P 500 up by 38.98 points (0.59%), ending at 6,643.70.
• The Nasdaq Composite was trading higher by 99.37 points (0.44%), finishing at 22,484.07.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices dropped nearly 1% after Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed crude exports through Turkey over the weekend, while expectations of another OPEC output hike in November further pressured the market.

• Brent crude slumped by 0.03% to $69.29/barrel
• US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading 0.15% lower at $64.89/barrel

Overnight Major Global Events Driving Sentiment

1. US Government Shutdown: The US faces a looming government shutdown as the September 30 funding deadline nears. President Donald Trump will meet top Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress to negotiate an extension. Without a deal, the government will shut down on October 1, the same day new US tariffs on heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and other products take effect.
2. US Inflation: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 0.3% in August after a 0.2% increase in July. On a yearly basis, the index climbed 2.7%, the sharpest rise since February, following July’s 2.6% gain.
3. Russia-Ukraine War: Russia launched one of its heaviest barrages on Ukraine since the war began, firing hundreds of drones and missiles at Kyiv and other regions on Sunday. The attack killed at least four people and injured dozens. Russia’s defence ministry said it carried out a “massive” strike using long-range air- and sea-based weapons and drones, targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure, including airfields.
4. US Consumer Spending: US consumer spending grew faster than expected in August, rising 0.6% after an unchanged 0.5% gain in July.

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