The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open cautiously on Monday as investors track mixed signals from overnight global markets.

Asian markets traded mixed, while US stocks ended higher last week, with all three major indices extending their longest monthly winning streaks in years.

In this holiday-shortened week, investors will closely monitor key market triggers such as Q2 earnings releases, domestic and global macroeconomic data, trends in FII and FPI flows, progress on the US-China and India-US trade deals, and other major geopolitical developments.

However, on Friday, Indian equities declined for the second consecutive session; however, both indices recorded their strongest monthly gains in seven months, marking the best performance since March.

Domestic Market Recap

On Friday, Indian indices closed in the red:

• Sensex slumped by 465.75 points (0.55%) to close at 83,938.71
• Nifty 50 moved down by 155.75 points (0.60%) to settle at 25,722.10

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty was trading near 25,855, around 50 points lower than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a negative start for Indian markets.

Overnight Wall Street Performance

The US stock market closed higher on Friday, with all three major indices posting weekly gains and extending their longest monthly winning streaks in years.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained by 40.75 points (0.09) to close at 47,562.87.
• S&P 500 down by 17.86 points (0.26%), ending at 6,840.20.
• The Nasdaq Composite was higher by 143.81 points (0.61%), finishing at 23,724.96.

Crude Oil Prices

• Brent crude gained 0.57% to $65.15/barrel
• US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading 0.62% lower at $61.36/barrel

Gold Prices 

• Spot gold was trading 0.8% higher at $3,968.76 per ounce.
• The US gold futures slumped by 0.5% to $3,978.30.

Overnight Major Global Events Driving Sentiment

1. GST Collection: India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections rose 4.6% year-on-year to Rs 1.96 lakh crore in October 2025, up from Rs 1.87 lakh crore in the same month last year. This increase came despite the central government’s GST Council introducing tax cuts in September 2025.
2. Auto Sales: India’s automobile sector recorded strong wholesale growth in October 2025, driven by festive season demand and improved consumer sentiment. Major automakers, including Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Hyundai, Mahindra & Mahindra, TVS Motor, Toyota Kirloskar, and Kia India, reported robust year-on-year gains across key vehicle categories.
3. FII Inflows: Foreign investors became net buyers in Indian equities in October after three consecutive months of withdrawals. According to NSDL data, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) infused Rs 14,610 crore into domestic equities last month, following outflows of Rs 23,885 crore in September, Rs 34,990 crore in August, and Rs 17,700 crore in July.
4. US-China Trade Deal: The White House announced that China will suspend additional export controls on rare earth metals and end investigations into US semiconductor supply chain firms. In return, the US will pause certain reciprocal tariffs imposed under the Trump era for another year and shelve plans to implement a 100% tariff on Chinese exports.
5. Fiscal Deficit: India’s fiscal deficit for April–September 2025 stood at Rs 5.73 lakh crore, representing 36.5% of the FY26 budget estimate of Rs 15.69 lakh crore. In comparison, the deficit during the same period last year was 29% of the FY25 budget estimate. The government has projected the fiscal deficit for FY26 at 4.4% of GDP.

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