Putin continues to push for a peace deal on his terms while still advancing militarily in Ukraine, resisting international pressure for a cease-fire before talks.

Trump’s recent call with Putin marked a shift, as he welcomed direct talks between Russia and Ukraine but made clear that economic ties with the U.S. would only improve after peace is achieved.

This is a diplomatic win for Putin, but it comes with a setback: economic normalisation with the U.S. is firmly tied to ending the war.

JD Vance echoed the same message, saying Russia cannot expect economic benefits if it continues causing civilian casualties in Ukraine.

Putin appears to prioritise military goals over economic gains, banking on the idea that time and battlefield momentum are on his side.

Russia’s economy, while slowing, remains stable, with oil prices steady and war spending intact. Recruitment remains strong despite high casualties, and military advances have accelerated, hinting at a possible summer offensive.

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