The Reserve Bank of India held its policy repo rate steady at 5.25% on Wednesday. Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced the call after a three-day meeting from 6 to 8 April. No rate change has come through since December 2025, when borrowing costs were last moved. That followed cumulative cuts of 125 basis points across the prior year.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously for the hold, keeping a neutral stance intact. ‘The MPC unanimously decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged,’ Malhotra told the media. The standing deposit facility rate stays at 5%, while the bank rate and marginal standing facility rate sit at 5.5%. West Asia tensions, rising crude and rupee pressure all factored into the committee’s deliberations.

Real GDP growth for FY27 is pegged at 6.9%, against 7.6% recorded in the previous financial year. The RBI sees output at 6.8% in Q1 and 6.7% in Q2 before a pickup later. Q3 is forecast at 7% and Q4 at 7.2%, suggesting momentum builds through the second half. Growth in services exports is expected to stay resilient despite the global turbulence.

Full-year CPI inflation is projected at 4.6%, with food prices looking comfortable in the near term. Rabi output has been strong, reservoir levels are adequate, and grain buffer stocks remain healthy. Energy is where the risk sits, with crude prices spiking on the back of the West Asia conflict. Quarterly CPI runs from 4% in Q1 to a peak of 5.2% in Q3, then eases to 4.7% in Q4. Petrol and diesel retail prices have not shifted domestically so far.

Goods exports face pressure from disrupted shipping routes and weaker global demand, the Governor said. Higher freight and insurance costs are adding to the squeeze on merchandise trade. Recently signed trade agreements may offer some cover once they become operational this year. Services trade, Malhotra indicated, should hold its ground through the year ahead.

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