US President Donald Trump prioritises ‘America First’ but may consider a ‘China Second’ approach if Xi Jinping agrees. This could lead to a ‘cold accord’—a modern twist on Cold War dynamics driven by mutual costs and convenience.
A US-China’ cold accord’ could corner Putin into ending the Ukraine war and turn the world into a bipolar setup, simplifying global power dynamics.
Trump’s omission of tariffs on Chinese imports leaves room for a surprising alliance, benefiting both nations economically and politically.
This deal could end tariff uncertainties for China, secure trade with the US, and establish an unchecked sphere of influence, avoiding overlap with Trump’s America.
Trump may prioritise transactional gains, ignoring issues like Xinjiang or Chinese debt traps, as long as American businesses benefit.
A US-China alliance could pressure Putin, forcing him to settle the Ukraine conflict by spreading Russian forces thin along its border with China.
Trump’s opposition to NATO expansion aligns with Putin’s demands, potentially leading to a resolution over Ukraine.
The deal could establish China as one of the two great global powers, allowing Xi to focus on economic recovery and modern-day colonisation.
Historically, US strategies to counter China’s rise, like promoting democracy and free markets, failed, but Trump might focus solely on economic benefits.
A temporary peace could bring short-term gains for global markets but leave long-term consequences unclear, such as Taiwan’s vulnerability and India’s strategic challenges.
India may need to reassess ties with China and the US, balancing border security and economic interests, especially with Tesla or SpaceX entering the Indian market.
Potential fallout includes slowed de-dollarisation, weakened oil exporters, and shifting alliances, but history warns of the dangers of dual-power domination.
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