The United Nations Food Agency said the exception to India’s wheat export ban is expected to support the 2022/23 export forecast of 7 million tonnes, still well above India’s export average of the past five years, due to previous contractual commitments government-to-government sales and food security purposes.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said in its Food Outlook published Thursday that the global wheat market is entering the 2022/23 season with “a lot of uncertainty”.

The impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine, trade policy changes in several countries and high international prices will weigh on the wheat market outlook, adding that international wheat prices are at their highest since 2008 after a season of tight global supplies levels, as production cuts in some major exporters and export suspensions in others, including Ukraine (a major exporter) and India (an emerging exporter), coupled with supply concerns for 2022/23 also added to the pressure.

Global wheat production in 2022 is forecast to fall by 0.8% from the record level in 2021 to 771 million tonnes, the first decline in four years. Year-on-year production declines in Australia, India, Morocco and Ukraine are likely to outpace expected increases in Canada, Iran and Russia.

According to the report, world trade is expected to contract in 2022/23, mainly due to a drop of almost 50% (down 9 million tonnes) in exports from Ukraine, a major wheat exporter from the previous season, and sustained export disruptions related to the war.

In India, a wheat export ban announced last month will also limit shipments in 2022/23, as the country gains market share in 2021/22 as Ukraine declines after record production in 2021 and domestic supplies drop. Increased and competitive prices help open new markets with Egypt and Vietnam.

However, the 2022/23 export forecast of 7 million tonnes is expected to be supported, still well above India’s export average of the past five years, due to previous contractual commitments, government-to-government export bans and food safety exceptions.

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Also, India’s wheat production in Asia is forecast at 105.5 million tonnes, down almost 4% from the record 2021 harvest.