Indian equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to open lower on Thursday as investors react to mixed overnight global signals following the US Federal Reserve’s policy outcome and remain cautious about the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.

Asian markets showed mixed trends, while US equities ended largely flat overnight after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled that inflation could rise significantly in the coming months, adding to investor uncertainty.

However, on Wednesday, the Indian stock market declined for the second consecutive session, weighed down by weak global sentiment.

Domestic Market Recap

On Wednesday, Indian indices closed in the red:

• Sensex slumped by 138.64 points (-0.17%) to close at 81,444.66
• Nifty 50 moved down by 41.35 points (0.17%) to settle at 24,812.05

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty was trading near 24,746, around 80 points lower than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a negative start for Indian markets.

Wall Street Performance

The US stock market closed mixed on Wednesday as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 

• Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped by 44.14 points (0.10%) points to close at 42,171.66.
• S&P 500 down by 1.85 points (0.03%), ending at 5,980.87.
• The Nasdaq Composite was trading lower by 25.18 points (0.13%), finishing at 19,546.27.

Crude Oil Prices

• Brent crude slumped by 0.39% to $76.40/barrel
• US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude: -0.37% to $74.86/barrel

Overnight Major Global Events Driving Sentiment

1. SEBI Board Meeting Outcome: The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) decided to simplify regulatory norms for Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) investing solely in Indian government securities (G-Secs). During its recent board meeting, SEBI also allowed startup founders to retain their stock options even after listing. Additionally, the board approved a proposal permitting select state-run companies to delist from stock exchanges without requiring minority shareholder approval.
2. US Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 245,000 for the week ending June 14, matching economist expectations. The data suggests a steady labour market despite broader economic concerns.
3. US Federal Reserve: The US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%. The Fed, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, projected a 50-basis-point rate cut in 2025. However, it lowered its 2026 rate cut projection to just 25 basis points from the previously anticipated 50 basis points.
4. Israel-Iran War: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rejected US demands to de-escalate amid continued Israeli airstrikes, warning that any US military intervention would inflict “irreparable damage” on Washington. Meanwhile, European diplomats prepared to meet Iranian officials on Friday. Israel confirmed it launched a new wave of airstrikes around Tehran and other parts of Iran.

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